Conclusions

The purpose of the project was to research tourism potential modelling in other jurisdictions,
determine what data is required for modelling, what is available in Nova Scotia,
provide feedback on
the Department of Natural Resource Integrated Resource Management process, and develop a model
for identified tourism values. The project was quite effective in reaching this stated purpose with the
exception of the actual creation of a GIS model. The field of tourism potential modelling is quite
specialized and unique and there are few jurisdictions that are doing this work. This type of work
seems to be carried out mainly in the arena of both government and academia. The examples
discovered were as follows: B.C. Tourism capability modelling which was carried out by the B.C.
government, the Recreation Opportunity Spectrum conducted by Parks Canada, a Visual Resource
Assessment also carried out by the B.C. government, and a Nature-Based Tourism Potential model
conducted by researchers at RMIT University in Australia.
From the case studies came the data that is required for modelling tourism potential. As
mentioned, this data includes many sources such as basemap information, biogeoclimatic data,
tourism surveying, crown land information, and other data sources. Through the course of the project
it has been determined that there is a gap in some areas between required and available data in Nova
Scotia. This gap has been addressed previously but will be expanded on in the recommendation
section. The project also examined the Integrated Resource Management dataset at the request of the
client. This information would be quite useful for modelling as it contains all provincial crown lands
in a ranked format. This data is recent and the result of a multi-departmental effort. It should,
however, not be treated as the definitive data source to use as it has acknowledged problems such as
how and why lands where placed in a certain category.
The project was originally intended to develop a GIS model for tourism values. However this
was not possible due to a lack of required data. The project however has effectively met the other
client requirements of research on other modelling efforts, reviewing existing data sources,
delineating what is available locally, and recommending courses of action. It should be noted that
modelling using geographic information systems is not absolute and is the result of a long process of
trail and error. Economic feasibility would be the next step logical step in tourism development it it
would be helpful if this was incorporated into the modelling as B.C. attempted. To conclude, there are
several recommendations of note that would help facilitate future tourism potential modelling.
Recommendations:
The first recommendation concerns the use of appropriate tourism surveys. Current tourism
surveys and studies are focused on the tourism market and services that the province offers. In order
to effectively model tourism potential, this data should be recent, and survey the user group (tourists)
directly. Further, the tourists surveyed should be directly asked what nature tourism activities they
participate in and what their landscape aesthetic preferences are, in order to assess tourism potential.
This data should also be geocoded and inputted into a GIS (digitial) format. This would help by
making the data more accessible for modelling and would decrease model production time and
costs.
The second recommendation is to create some type of biogeoclimatic data similar to what is
available in B.C. This data should include precipitation amounts, climatic data, and vegetation/ground
cover information. This type of data would go a long way towards creating an accurate and effective
model that would model both tourism attractiveness and environmental resiliency factors which are
mentioned by the case studies as being important. Vegetation data (ground cover) as mentioned, does
not exist and should be collected. The important factors to consider in collecting vegetation data are
ground cover, the resiliency of this ground cover, and the attractiveness or aesthetics of this
vegetation. The vegetation data is quite important because it helps researchers determine what the
aesthetic preferences of tourists are. By knowing the existing vegetation the researchers can also
figure out how environmentally resilient the region is and how it can handle increased tourism
use.
The third recommendation is to collect appropriate wilderness data. This will require
consultation with DNR and field research to determine wildlife habitats. Before modelling can occur,
these habitats should be collected, analyzed, mapped, and examined to ensure that they provide not
only wildlife viewing opportunities but opportunities that are sustainable and can be supported by the
land cover of the area.
The fourth recommendation is consultation with the Nova Scotia Geomatics Centre (NSGC) in
Amherst, N.S. The NSGC distributes and creates much of the geographical data in the province and
has many industry and government contacts. Because of this they have a good idea what is available
and what the usefulness of this data, especially their topographic basemap data.
The fifth recommendation is to pick an appropriate GIS software with modelling capabilities
such as ArcView’s Modelbuilder. Also, since access is often a problem with proprietary data, the client
should begin the process of data collection far in advance of the actual project.
Next, the client should have a clear idea of what activities will be modelled and resources
Grid cell size is the next recommendation. After consultation with the studies discussed in
chapter 4 it is clear that the grid cell used for the modelling was commonly a 100 metre by 100 metre
cell. Through consultation with faculty this was determined to be an acceptable grid cell size for
scales of around 1:25,000 down to 1:250,000 and this works because the models researched all
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advocated mapping within this scale range.
The size of the study area and the scale of the mapping
used will determine an appropriate grid cell size.
Tourism potential modelling should not be attempted unless the developer has the money,
resources, time, and technical consultation or support to develop an accurate and useful model. As
well, there should be a clear identification beforehand of what specific tourism products or activities
are going to be modelled and what they require to be modelled. Any modelling effort should also be
environmental responsible and maintain principles of environmental sustainability.
Lastly, this project on tourism potential modelling is the result of a public tender put out by the
Department of Tourism and Culture in the summer of 2002. There is currently a private consultant
firm, Environmental Design Management (EDM) of Halifax, who were awarded the contract to
develop a model for a pilot area in Guysborough County. This company should be consulted to find
out more about doing tourism potential modelling. Since the research project is along the lines of what
this consultant is doing it would be prudent to discuss briefly the work that this consultant has done
and what stage of the project they are currently at, as well as some of the data they have used. This
company has worked closely with the Department of Tourism relying on their extensive tourism
market knowledge to determine the basis and ranking of such of a model. To help assess both what
products to model and what they require, EDM relied on several tourism reports and publications such
as the 2000 Tourism Exit Survey, the various tourism product development studies of the department,
and tourists publications such as the annual Doers and Dreamers guide all off which can be accessed
through the departments website at http://www.nstpc.com/research_reports_ip.html The focus of the
consultant’s project is modelling those activities/products that are important to the tourist market, as
determined by the Department of Tourism. The project has two distinct streams that are worth
mentioning. Some products are being simply mapped while others are actually being modelled using a
predictive GIS model. One of the primary products being modelled is access to beaches/coastal areas.
Rankings for the various tourism products being modelled come from the knoweledge of Department
of Tourism staff as well as from specific groups like trail user groups and associations. High and low
rankings come from what are deemed “soft” and “hard” adventures.
Soft adventures tend to be activities like walking and hiking and these are ranked based on
where the trails are, the slope (as a slope over a certain grade would receive a low ranking), ground
cover, and scenic views. A mathematical equation based on these factors determines the potential
areas. Areas with under a certain slope receive a high ranking score while those with slope b, over this
slope threshold, get a poor score. The hope is that the modelling procedure can eventually be adapted
to the entire province. The information relating to the progress of EDM was gained from conversation
with John Jozsa from EDM on March 27, 2003. The company is currently in the mapping and
modelling stage having determined the final draft of what tourism values to model and progressing to
the modelling stage and the production of draft tourism values maps.